{"schema":"postcutoff/event@1","as_of":"2026-11-13T13:49:00+01:00","url":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2018-12-02-alphafold-1-casp13/","md":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2018-12-02-alphafold-1-casp13/index.md","disclosure":{"written_by":"AI agents (Claude Opus 5.5 in Claude Code)","editor":"human editor","policy":"https://postcutoff.com/about/"},"license":null,"id":"2018-12-02-alphafold-1-casp13","date":"2018-12-02","date_precision":"day","short_title":"AlphaFold (v1) tops the CASP13 protein-structure prediction assessment","deck":null,"takeaway":"DeepMind's first AlphaFold ranked first in the CASP13 blind assessment of protein structure prediction, an early sign that deep learning could crack the protein folding problem.","category":"science","category_label":"Science & math","importance":4,"confidence":"medium","status":{"key":"confirmed","labels":["Result confirmed"]},"sources":[{"n":1,"title":"Improved protein structure prediction using potentials from deep learning (Nature, DOI)","url":"https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1923-7","type":"paper","group":"primary","domain":"doi.org"},{"n":2,"title":"Wikipedia: AlphaFold","url":"https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AlphaFold","type":"discussion","group":"reactions","domain":"en.wikipedia.org"}],"official":1,"filed":"2026-09-29","updated":"2026-09-29","orgs":["DeepMind"],"title":"AlphaFold (v1) tops the CASP13 protein-structure prediction assessment","summary":"DeepMind's first AlphaFold ranked first in the CASP13 blind assessment of protein structure prediction, an early sign that deep learning could crack the protein folding problem.","key_facts":["CASP13 results announced December 2018","Predicted inter-residue distances with a deep network, then optimized structures","Nature paper published January 2020","Precursor to AlphaFold 2, which essentially solved single-chain structure prediction at CASP14 (2020)"],"key_numbers":[],"tags":["biology","protein-folding","alphafold"],"science":{"field":"biology","subfield":"structural biology","problem":"Protein structure prediction from amino-acid sequence (CASP13 free-modelling targets)","result":"Ranked first of ~100 groups at CASP13 by predicting inter-residue distance distributions with a deep network and folding by gradient descent on the resulting potential.","open_since":"1972","ai_system":["AlphaFold 1"],"human_role":"Human-designed system; predictions made autonomously in a blind assessment","verification":{"key":"peer-review","label":"Peer-reviewed","text":"Blind community assessment (CASP13); peer-reviewed in Nature (2020)"},"status":"confirmed","shock":"A newcomer with no structural-biology track record beat long-established academic groups by a clear margin."},"body_md":"## What happened\n\nAlphaFold placed first overall among ~100 groups in the free-modeling category of CASP13.\n\n## Why it matters\n\nMarked AI's entry into a grand challenge of biology and set up the 2020 AlphaFold 2 breakthrough.","disputed":[],"related":[{"id":"2020-11-30-alphafold-2","url":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2020-11-30-alphafold-2/","date":"2020-11-30","date_precision":"day","short_title":"AlphaFold 2 solves protein structure prediction at CASP14","deck":null,"takeaway":"The clearest case of AI producing a major scientific breakthrough; used by millions of researchers and recognized with a Nobel Prize.","category":"science","category_label":"Science & math","importance":5,"confidence":"high","status":{"key":"confirmed","labels":["Result confirmed"]},"sources":3,"official":3,"filed":"2026-09-29","updated":"2026-09-29","orgs":["DeepMind"]}],"people":[],"posts":[],"videos":[],"models":[],"changes":[{"date":"2026-09-29","type":"edit","text":"Added science block (science & math tab)"},{"date":"2026-09-29","type":"filed","text":"Created"}],"provenance":{"agents":[{"model":"Claude Opus 5.5","maker":"Anthropic","tool":"Claude Code"}],"filed":"2026-09-29","run":null,"sources_read":null,"updated":"2026-09-29","human_review":null,"version":{"date":"2026-10-04"}},"gaps":[{"model_id":"gpt-6-astra","name":"GPT-6 Astra","cutoff":"2026-04","days_after":null,"in_training_data":true},{"model_id":"claude-opus-5-5","name":"Claude Opus 5.5","cutoff":"2026-06","days_after":null,"in_training_data":true},{"model_id":"gemini-4-hydrogen","name":"Gemini 4 Hydrogen","cutoff":"2026-03","days_after":null,"in_training_data":true},{"model_id":"grok-4-7","name":"Grok 4.7","cutoff":"2026-05","days_after":null,"in_training_data":true}],"short_url":"https://postcutoff.com/s/alphafold-v1-tops-casp13"}