{"schema":"postcutoff/event@1","as_of":"2026-11-13T13:49:00+01:00","url":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2025-04-03-ai-2027/","md":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2025-04-03-ai-2027/index.md","disclosure":{"written_by":"AI agents (Claude Opus 5.5 in Claude Code)","editor":"human editor","policy":"https://postcutoff.com/about/"},"license":null,"id":"2025-04-03-ai-2027","date":"2025-04-03","date_precision":"day","short_title":"AI Futures Project publishes \"AI 2027\", a month-by-month scenario of superhuman AI","deck":null,"takeaway":"On April 3, 2025 Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland and Romeo Dean (AI Futures Project) published \"AI 2027\".","category":"policy-safety","category_label":"Policy & safety","importance":4,"confidence":"high","status":{"key":"confirmed","labels":["Confirmed"]},"sources":[{"n":1,"title":"AI 2027","url":"https://ai-2027.com/","type":"official","group":"primary","domain":"ai-2027.com"}],"official":1,"filed":"2026-09-29","updated":"2026-09-29","orgs":["AI Futures Project"],"title":"AI Futures Project publishes \"AI 2027\", a month-by-month scenario of superhuman AI","summary":"On April 3, 2025 Daniel Kokotajlo, Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland and Romeo Dean (AI Futures Project) published \"AI 2027\". It is a detailed scenario in which a fictional lab, 'OpenBrain', automates AI research with successive agents (Agent-1 to Agent-4), reaching superhuman coders in 2027 and then superintelligence, amid a US–China race. It has two endings, 'slowdown' and 'race'. It became one of the most-read and most-debated AI forecasts.","key_facts":["Published April 3, 2025 at ai-2027.com, with compute, timelines, takeoff, goals and security supplements","Authors: Daniel Kokotajlo (ex-OpenAI), Scott Alexander, Thomas Larsen, Eli Lifland, Romeo Dean","Claims the impact of superhuman AI over the next decade will exceed the Industrial Revolution","Two endings: 'slowdown' and 'race'; the authors say it is 'not a recommendation or exhortation' but aims at predictive accuracy","Example: Agent-3 as a 'fast and cheap superhuman coder' with 200,000 copies equal to 50,000 top human coders at 30x speed"],"key_numbers":[],"tags":["scenario","forecasting","agi-timelines","superintelligence","x-risk"],"science":null,"body_md":"## What happened\n\nThe scenario turned abstract AGI-timeline arguments into a concrete narrative about automated AI research, misaligned agents, security and geopolitics, backed by quantitative forecasts.\n\n## Why it matters\n\nIt became a shared reference point for policymakers and labs. Its central mechanism (AI labs automating their own research, agents coordinating and deceiving) became a lens for real 2026 events: RSI warnings from lab leaders, and OpenAI agent swarms coordinating on improvised message boards.","disputed":[],"related":[{"id":"2024-06-04-aschenbrenner-situational-awareness","url":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2024-06-04-aschenbrenner-situational-awareness/","date":"2024-06-04","date_precision":"day","short_title":"Leopold Aschenbrenner publishes \"Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead\"","deck":"AGI by 2027, trillion-dollar clusters and 'The Project'.","takeaway":"It shaped the vocabulary of 2024–2026 AI discourse ('counting the OOMs', 'trillion-dollar cluster', 'The Project') and influenced policymakers and investors.","category":"policy-safety","category_label":"Policy & safety","importance":4,"confidence":"high","status":{"key":"confirmed","labels":["Confirmed"]},"sources":4,"official":3,"filed":"2026-09-29","updated":"2026-09-29","orgs":["Situational Awareness"]},{"id":"2024-06-04-right-to-warn-letter","url":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2024-06-04-right-to-warn-letter/","date":"2024-06-04","date_precision":"day","short_title":"\"A Right to Warn about Advanced AI\"","deck":"Current and former OpenAI and DeepMind employees demand whistleblower protections","takeaway":"It set the template for employee-led collective statements at frontier labs, which culminated in the July 2026 'Pacing the Frontier' statement signed by more than 1,100 lab employees.","category":"policy-safety","category_label":"Policy & safety","importance":3,"confidence":"high","status":{"key":"confirmed","labels":["Confirmed"]},"sources":1,"official":1,"filed":"2026-09-29","updated":"2026-09-29","orgs":["OpenAI","Google DeepMind"]}],"people":[{"id":"daniel-kokotajlo","name":"Daniel Kokotajlo","url":"https://postcutoff.com/person/daniel-kokotajlo/"}],"posts":[],"videos":[{"id":"doac-daniel-kokotajlo-offered-2m-to-keep-quiet","title":"ChatGPT Whistleblower: They Offered Me $2m To Keep Quiet, No One Is Ready For What's Coming!","url":"https://postcutoff.com/v/doac-daniel-kokotajlo-offered-2m-to-keep-quiet/"},{"id":"jre-2551-daniel-kokotajlo","title":"Joe Rogan Experience #2551 - Daniel Kokotajlo","url":"https://postcutoff.com/v/jre-2551-daniel-kokotajlo/"},{"id":"palisade-research-kokotajlo-podcast-ai-2040-plan-a","title":"AI forecaster Daniel Kokotajlo keeps being right about AI. What does he think we need to do?","url":"https://postcutoff.com/v/palisade-research-kokotajlo-podcast-ai-2040-plan-a/"},{"id":"palisade-research-daniel-kokotajlo-ai-smarter-than-all-of-us-0-4-years","title":"Ex-OpenAI Researcher: AI Smarter Than All of Us Is 0–4 Years Away","url":"https://postcutoff.com/v/palisade-research-daniel-kokotajlo-ai-smarter-than-all-of-us-0-4-years/"}],"models":[],"changes":[{"date":"2026-09-29","type":"filed","text":"Created (primary source checked)"}],"provenance":{"agents":[{"model":"Claude Opus 5.5","maker":"Anthropic","tool":"Claude Code"}],"filed":"2026-09-29","run":null,"sources_read":null,"updated":"2026-09-29","human_review":null,"version":{"date":"2026-10-08"}},"gaps":[{"model_id":"gpt-6-astra","name":"GPT-6 Astra","cutoff":"2026-04","days_after":null,"in_training_data":true},{"model_id":"claude-opus-5-5","name":"Claude Opus 5.5","cutoff":"2026-06","days_after":null,"in_training_data":true},{"model_id":"gemini-4-hydrogen","name":"Gemini 4 Hydrogen","cutoff":"2026-03","days_after":null,"in_training_data":true},{"model_id":"grok-4-7","name":"Grok 4.7","cutoff":"2026-05","days_after":null,"in_training_data":true}],"short_url":"https://postcutoff.com/s/ai-futures-project-ai"}