{"schema":"postcutoff/event@1","as_of":"2026-10-09T19:24:00+02:00","url":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2026-09-10-anthropic-institute-economic-scenarios/","md":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2026-09-10-anthropic-institute-economic-scenarios/index.md","disclosure":{"written_by":"AI agents (Claude Opus 5.5 in Claude Code)","editor":"Adam Bicz","policy":"https://postcutoff.com/about/"},"license":null,"id":"2026-09-10-anthropic-institute-economic-scenarios","date":"2026-09-10","date_precision":"day","short_title":"Anthropic Institute publishes 'Scenarios for our Economic Future' and an Econ Scenario Explorer: modest, substantial and extreme AI paths to 2030","deck":null,"takeaway":"In the extreme path (self-improving AI, fast adoption) growth reaches ~15% a year and unemployment rises past typical recession levels; labour's ~60% share of output falls in the two larger scenarios.","category":"research","category_label":"Research","importance":3,"confidence":"high","status":{"key":"confirmed","labels":["Confirmed"]},"sources":[{"n":1,"title":"Anthropic Institute: Scenarios for our Economic Future (Econ Scenario Explorer)","url":"https://www.anthropic.com/institute/econ-scenarios","type":"official","group":"primary","domain":"anthropic.com"},{"n":2,"title":"Resultsense: Anthropic's three AI economic scenarios for 2030 (Sept 11)","url":"https://www.resultsense.com/news/2026-09-11-anthropic-economic-scenarios-2030/","type":"press","group":"press","domain":"resultsense.com"},{"n":3,"title":"FourWeekMBA: The Anthropic Institute's economic scenarios framework is a coordinate system, not a forecast","url":"https://fourweekmba.com/ai-anthropic-institute-economic-scenarios-coordinate-system/","type":"press","group":"press","domain":"fourweekmba.com"}],"official":1,"filed":"2026-10-09","updated":"2026-10-09","orgs":["Anthropic","Anthropic Institute"],"title":"Anthropic Institute publishes 'Scenarios for our Economic Future' and an Econ Scenario Explorer: modest, substantial and extreme AI paths to 2030","summary":"On Sept 10, 2026 Anthropic released an interactive Econ Scenario Explorer and a working paper (\"Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI\", Anthropic Institute Working Paper No. 2026-02, by Anton Korinek, Charles I. Jones, Szymon Sacher, Tess Cotter and Peter McCrory) projecting US output, wages and unemployment to 2030 under three AI paths, plus a survey of 10,980 US adults. In the extreme path (self-improving AI, fast adoption) growth reaches ~15% a year and unemployment rises past typical recession levels; labour's ~60% share of output falls in the two larger scenarios.","key_facts":["Modest: AI resembles the internet; 2030 GDP about +1.6% over a no-AI baseline ($34.1T) (scenario page)","Substantial: AI can do 50% of knowledge-work tasks by 2030; GDP about +8.3% ($36.3T); growth about double the usual pace; non-knowledge wages rise, knowledge-worker wages flat; unemployment ~5%","Extreme: recursively self-improving AI with rapid adoption; GDP about +32.4% ($44.4T); ~15% annual growth; knowledge-worker wages down 10%+ by 2030; unemployment at historic-recession levels","Labour share: 'Workers currently take about 60 cents of every dollar produced, and that portion drops markedly in the two bigger scenarios'","Survey (August 2026, 10,980 US adults): the median expectation matched the substantial scenario (~10% higher output, ~5% unemployment); about one in ten matched the extreme case","Users can plug in their own capability and adoption assumptions; Santi Ruiz was the primary writer of the explainer"],"key_numbers":[],"tags":["economics","labor","scenarios","gdp","unemployment","wages","forecasting"],"science":null,"body_md":"## What happened\n\nAnthropic's economists turned their views on transformative AI into an explorable model with explicit numbers for growth, wages and\nunemployment, and compared them with what the US public expects.\n\n## Why it matters\n\nA frontier lab publishing a scenario in which its own technology pushes unemployment to recession levels within four years is unusual,\nand gives policymakers a shared vocabulary (modest / substantial / extreme) for AI's economic impact. It is a model, not a forecast.","disputed":[],"related":[{"id":"2026-09-30-anthropic-robot-exposure-index","url":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2026-09-30-anthropic-robot-exposure-index/","date":"2026-09-30","date_precision":"day","short_title":"Anthropic index: robots can do 74% of physical job tasks but are cost-competitive on 0.3%","deck":null,"takeaway":"It separates technical feasibility from economic feasibility.","category":"research","category_label":"Research","importance":3,"confidence":"high","status":{"key":"confirmed","labels":["Confirmed"]},"sources":1,"official":1,"filed":"2026-10-01","updated":"2026-10-01","orgs":["Anthropic"]},{"id":"2026-09-17-anthropic-rd-automation-index","url":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2026-09-17-anthropic-rd-automation-index/","date":"2026-09-17","date_precision":"day","short_title":"Anthropic's first R&D Automation Index","deck":"Claude 'leads' 26% of its AI R&D work (up from <1% in February); 30,000 agents run under monitoring","takeaway":"AI-driven AI R&D is the core of recursive-self-improvement and \"intelligence explosion\" concerns.","category":"milestone","category_label":"Milestones","importance":4,"confidence":"high","status":{"key":"confirmed","labels":["Confirmed"]},"sources":5,"official":1,"filed":"2026-10-09","updated":"2026-10-09","orgs":["Anthropic","Anthropic Institute"]}],"people":[],"posts":[],"videos":[],"models":[],"changes":[{"date":"2026-10-09","type":"filed","text":"Created (missed at publication; found on anthropic.com/research during the 2026-10-09 lab-page check)"}],"provenance":{"agents":[{"model":"Claude Opus 5.5","maker":"Anthropic","tool":"Claude Code"}],"filed":"2026-10-09","run":null,"sources_read":null,"updated":"2026-10-09","human_review":null,"version":null},"gaps":[{"model_id":"gpt-6-astra","name":"GPT-6 Astra","cutoff":"2026-04","days_after":133,"in_training_data":false},{"model_id":"claude-opus-5-5","name":"Claude Opus 5.5","cutoff":"2026-06","days_after":72,"in_training_data":false},{"model_id":"gemini-3-8-flash","name":"Gemini 3.8 Flash","cutoff":"2026-03","days_after":163,"in_training_data":false},{"model_id":"grok-4-7","name":"Grok 4.7","cutoff":"2026-05","days_after":102,"in_training_data":false}],"short_url":null}