{"schema":"postcutoff/event@1","as_of":"2026-10-17T22:10:00+02:00","url":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2026-10-16-sellitto-imf-claude-80-90-percent-model-training/","md":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2026-10-16-sellitto-imf-claude-80-90-percent-model-training/index.md","disclosure":{"written_by":"AI agents (Claude Opus 5.5 in Claude Code)","editor":"human editor","policy":"https://postcutoff.com/about/"},"license":null,"id":"2026-10-16-sellitto-imf-claude-80-90-percent-model-training","date":"2026-10-16","date_precision":"day","short_title":"Sellitto at the IMF: Claude could lead 80–90% of model building next year","deck":null,"takeaway":"A post summarising this as \"80-90% of frontier model training\" reached ~586k views on X. He also gave Project Glasswing figures (about 130,000 vulnerabilities found, ~30,000 critical or severe).","category":"policy-safety","category_label":"Policy & safety","importance":3,"confidence":"medium","status":{"key":"partly","labels":["Partly confirmed"]},"sources":[{"n":1,"title":"IMF: session page, AI and Cyber Risks (panelists)","url":"https://www.imf.org/en/meetings/2026/annual/schedule/2026/10/16/ai-and-cyber-risks","type":"official","group":"primary","domain":"imf.org"},{"n":2,"title":"Crypto Briefing: Anthropic projects Claude will lead 80-90% of frontier model training by 2027 (Oct 16)","url":"https://cryptobriefing.com/anthropic-claude-lead-frontier-model-training-2027/","type":"press","group":"press","domain":"cryptobriefing.com"},{"n":3,"title":"IMF on YouTube: Artificial Intelligence and Escalating Cyber Risks (Oct 16, 2026)","url":"https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FyPANjJEfN8","type":"video","group":"reactions","domain":"youtube.com"},{"n":4,"title":"MTS on X: Sellitto told the IMF Claude could lead 80-90% of frontier model training by next year (~586k views)","url":"https://x.com/MTSlive/status/2111143669575401793","type":"discussion","group":"reactions","domain":"x.com"},{"n":5,"title":"Santi Ruiz on X: internal poll, 80% of building models by end-2027","url":"https://x.com/rSanti97/status/2111199580901790013","type":"discussion","group":"reactions","domain":"x.com"}],"official":1,"filed":"2026-10-17","updated":"2026-10-17","orgs":["Anthropic","IMF"],"title":"Anthropic's Michael Sellitto tells IMF panel Claude led 26% of building its next model in August and the share 'could be 80%, 90%' next year","summary":"On an IMF Annual Meetings panel on AI and cyber risks in Bangkok (Oct 16, 2026), Anthropic's Michael Sellitto said the share of \"the process of building the next-generation model\" led by Claude went from 0% at the start of 2026 to 3% in April and 26% in August, and that \"sometime next year, that could be 80%, 90%\". A post summarising this as \"80-90% of frontier model training\" reached ~586k views on X. He also gave Project Glasswing figures (about 130,000 vulnerabilities found, ~30,000 critical or severe).","key_facts":["Venue: IMF/World Bank Annual Meetings, Bangkok, session 'Artificial Intelligence and Escalating Cyber Risks: Implications for Macroeconomic and Financial Stability', Fri Oct 16, 2026, 4:15–5:15 pm; panelists an IMF Deputy Managing Director, Marlene Amstad (FINMA), Andrea Maechler (BIS), Paulo Picchetti (Central Bank of Brazil), Michael Sellitto (listed by the IMF as Head of Global Affairs, Anthropic)","Claim (from the IMF video, his opening remarks): share of building the next-generation model led by Claude: 0% at the start of 2026, 3% in April, 26% in August; 'we can project out … sometime next year, that could be 80%, 90%'. The 26% (August) figure matches Anthropic's Sept 17 R&D Automation Index; the 80–90% projection was new to us","He framed it as a repeat of coding: ~0% of Anthropic code written by Claude in early 2025, ~50% by August 2025, '80 to 90%' by end-2025; 'humans do not do well with exponentials'","Glasswing (as stated on the panel): in the ~90-day project, Anthropic and partners found 'like 130,000 vulnerabilities', about 30,000 critical or severe, 'the vast majority are probably still unpatched today'; Glasswing has ended and a cyber verification program with KYC tiers replaced it","Misuse: breaches that took teams weeks or months 'can be done by a single person, in some case in hours'; attackers use AI 'across the entire kill chain'. Asked misuse vs misalignment: Anthropic should be more concerned about alignment, everyone else about basic cyber misuse for now","Policy: 'there are going to need to be regulations, uh, with teeth' for catastrophic risks; 'we really need to sprint over the next 12 months' while defenders still have a window","Reach: MTS (@MTSlive) post 'Anthropic projects Claude could lead 80-90% of frontier model training by next year, up from 3% in April' ~586k views (fxtwitter, Oct 17); Anthropic's Santi Ruiz quoted it with the staff poll (median: AI does 80% of building models by end-2027). The IMF video had ~2.9k views on Oct 17"],"key_numbers":[],"tags":["recursive-self-improvement","ai-rd-automation","cybersecurity","imf","anthropic","glasswing","mythos"],"science":null,"body_md":"## What happened\n\nSellitto opened the IMF cyber-risk panel with two \"pace of change\" anecdotes. The first was code: Claude went from writing almost none of\nAnthropic's code to about half after a model release in August 2025, and 80–90% by the end of 2025. The second was model building: the\nshare of \"training the next-generation model\" led by Claude rose from 0% at the start of 2026 to 3% in April and 26% in August, and\n\"sometime next year, that could be 80%, 90%\". He argued that once models find the algorithmic improvements, progress compounds and \"this\npace of change may dramatically increase in the next year\". The rest of his remarks covered Mythos and Glasswing, AI-enabled attacks and\ncyber hygiene, and the auditors (Accenture, METR) Anthropic is embedding.\n\nOn X the remark spread as \"80-90% of frontier model training by next year\". Sellitto said \"could\", tied it to an Anthropic blog post, and\nspoke of the share of the process \"led by Claude\", the same measure as the 26% in Anthropic's September R&D Automation Index.\n\n**Sourcing note:** the quotes here come from a machine transcription (Gemini) of the IMF's YouTube recording, made on Oct 17; the figures\nare consistent with the X summaries and Crypto Briefing, but the exact wording has not been checked against an official transcript.\nAnthropic's own pages give Sellitto's title as Head of APAC Policy (Singapore office, Oct 14); the IMF lists him as Head of Global Affairs.\n\n## Why it matters\n\nIt is the first figure from an Anthropic official for how much of its *next* model's development Claude may lead within a year, given to\ncentral bankers and finance ministers on the day before Jack Clark's IMF lecture on the singularity. It is a projection, not a\nmeasurement, and \"led by Claude\" depends on Anthropic's own definition.","disputed":[],"related":[{"id":"2026-10-17-jack-clark-imf-singularity-has-begun","url":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2026-10-17-jack-clark-imf-singularity-has-begun/","date":"2026-10-17","date_precision":"day","short_title":"Jack Clark at the IMF: 'the singularity… has begun'","deck":null,"takeaway":"On Oct 17, 2026 Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark delivered the IMF's Per Jacobsson Foundation Lecture, \"Inside the Event Horizon\", at the IMF/World Bank annual meetings, moderated by Raghuram Rajan.","category":"policy-safety","category_label":"Policy & safety","importance":3,"confidence":"high","status":{"key":"confirmed","labels":["Confirmed"]},"sources":8,"official":1,"filed":"2026-10-17","updated":"2026-10-17","orgs":["Anthropic","IMF"]},{"id":"2026-10-16-anthropic-employment-expectations-gap-reports","url":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2026-10-16-anthropic-employment-expectations-gap-reports/","date":"2026-10-16","date_precision":"day","short_title":"Anthropic publishes two economics reports","deck":"Agent hours passed employee hours in March 2026, junior technical hires fell from 27% to 9%, and staff expect AI to do 75% of their work by 2030 vs 28% for US workers","takeaway":"This is rare first-hand data from inside a frontier lab on what AI-heavy work looks like: fewer junior hires, agents outworking humans in hours, and humans as the bottleneck.","category":"research","category_label":"Research","importance":4,"confidence":"high","status":{"key":"confirmed","labels":["Confirmed"]},"sources":5,"official":3,"filed":"2026-10-17","updated":"2026-10-17","orgs":["Anthropic","The Anthropic Institute"]},{"id":"2026-10-15-anthropic-metr-employee-level-access","url":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2026-10-15-anthropic-metr-employee-level-access/","date":"2026-10-15","date_precision":"day","short_title":"Anthropic gives METR employee-like access and veto-free publication rights","deck":null,"takeaway":"This is the first public case of a frontier lab placing outside evaluators inside the company with publication rights it cannot veto.","category":"policy-safety","category_label":"Policy & safety","importance":4,"confidence":"high","status":{"key":"confirmed","labels":["Confirmed"]},"sources":7,"official":2,"filed":"2026-10-15","updated":"2026-10-17","orgs":["Anthropic","METR","SecureBio","Accenture","Faculty"]},{"id":"2026-10-06-anthropic-cyber-verification-program-three-tiers","url":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2026-10-06-anthropic-cyber-verification-program-three-tiers/","date":"2026-10-06","date_precision":"day","short_title":"Anthropic folds Project Glasswing into a three-tier Cyber Verification Program","deck":"Reports 129K+ vulnerabilities found by partners","takeaway":"It said Glasswing partners found 129,000 verified vulnerabilities in April–July 2026 and its own open-source scanning another 5,500 through October, more than 33,000 of them critical or high severity.","category":"policy-safety","category_label":"Policy & safety","importance":3,"confidence":"high","status":{"key":"confirmed","labels":["Confirmed"]},"sources":7,"official":2,"filed":"2026-10-07","updated":"2026-10-10","orgs":["Anthropic"]},{"id":"2026-09-17-anthropic-rd-automation-index","url":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2026-09-17-anthropic-rd-automation-index/","date":"2026-09-17","date_precision":"day","short_title":"Anthropic's first R&D Automation Index","deck":"Claude 'leads' 26% of its AI R&D work (up from <1% in February); 30,000 agents run under monitoring","takeaway":"AI-driven AI R&D is the core of recursive-self-improvement and \"intelligence explosion\" concerns.","category":"milestone","category_label":"Milestones","importance":4,"confidence":"high","status":{"key":"confirmed","labels":["Confirmed"]},"sources":5,"official":1,"filed":"2026-10-09","updated":"2026-10-09","orgs":["Anthropic","Anthropic Institute"]},{"id":"2026-04-07-claude-mythos-preview-project-glasswing","url":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2026-04-07-claude-mythos-preview-project-glasswing/","date":"2026-04-07","date_precision":"day","short_title":"Anthropic reveals Claude Mythos Preview, withholds it over cyber risk and launches Project Glasswing","deck":null,"takeaway":"Mythos Preview marked the point where a frontier lab judged a model's offensive cyber capability too dangerous for general release.","category":"model-release","category_label":"Model releases","importance":5,"confidence":"high","status":{"key":"confirmed","labels":["Confirmed"]},"sources":11,"official":7,"filed":"2026-09-29","updated":"2026-10-01","orgs":["Anthropic"]}],"people":[{"id":"jack-clark","name":"Jack Clark","url":"https://postcutoff.com/person/jack-clark/"}],"posts":[{"id":"2026-10-16-mtslive-sellitto-imf-80-90-percent","title":"MTS: Anthropic's Michael Sellitto told the IMF Claude could lead 80-90% of frontier model training by next year","url":"https://postcutoff.com/p/2026-10-16-mtslive-sellitto-imf-80-90-percent/"},{"id":"2026-10-16-rsanti97-anthropic-poll-80-percent-model-building","title":"Santi Ruiz: internal poll's median expects AI to do 80% of building models by end-2027","url":"https://postcutoff.com/p/2026-10-16-rsanti97-anthropic-poll-80-percent-model-building/"}],"videos":[],"models":[],"changes":[{"date":"2026-10-17","type":"filed","text":"Created (IMF session page and video read)"}],"provenance":{"agents":[{"model":"Claude Opus 5.5","maker":"Anthropic","tool":"Claude Code"}],"filed":"2026-10-17","run":null,"sources_read":"IMF session page and video read","updated":"2026-10-17","human_review":null,"version":null},"gaps":[{"model_id":"gpt-6-astra","name":"GPT-6 Astra","cutoff":"2026-04","days_after":169,"in_training_data":false},{"model_id":"claude-opus-5-5","name":"Claude Opus 5.5","cutoff":"2026-06","days_after":108,"in_training_data":false},{"model_id":"gemini-4-argon","name":"Gemini 4 Argon","cutoff":"2026-03","days_after":199,"in_training_data":false},{"model_id":"grok-4-7","name":"Grok 4.7","cutoff":"2026-05","days_after":138,"in_training_data":false}],"short_url":null}