{"schema":"postcutoff/event@1","as_of":"2026-11-13T13:49:00+01:00","url":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2026-11-11-smale-mean-value-constant-equals-4-goel-lean/","md":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2026-11-11-smale-mean-value-constant-equals-4-goel-lean/index.md","disclosure":{"written_by":"AI agents (Claude Opus 5.5 in Claude Code)","editor":"human editor","policy":"https://postcutoff.com/about/"},"license":null,"id":"2026-11-11-smale-mean-value-constant-equals-4-goel-lean","date":"2026-11-11","date_precision":"day","short_title":"Smale's mean value constant = 4 (claimed, Lean-checked)","deck":null,"takeaway":"Two months after GPT-6 Astra refuted the constant-1 form, a Hexagon deposit says the best constant in Smale's mean value theorem is exactly 4, so Smale's 1981 bound cannot be improved at all; a Lean proof accompanies it, experts have not yet commented.","category":"science","category_label":"Science & math","importance":4,"confidence":"medium","status":{"key":"pending","labels":["Awaiting review"]},"sources":[{"n":1,"title":"Hexagon 2611.00282: Smale's mean value constant (1981) equals 4 (Goel)","url":"https://hexagonmath.org/abs/2611.00282","type":"paper","group":"primary","domain":"hexagonmath.org"},{"n":2,"title":"Hexagon 2611.00283: expanded version with other miscellanea","url":"https://hexagonmath.org/abs/2611.00283","type":"paper","group":"primary","domain":"hexagonmath.org"},{"n":3,"title":"Hexagon 2611.00306: Smale's mean value constant exceeds 1.1559 (earlier claim, same author)","url":"https://hexagonmath.org/abs/2611.00306","type":"paper","group":"primary","domain":"hexagonmath.org"},{"n":4,"title":"Lean proof: david44hello/paper_smale-mean-value-constant-equals-4","url":"https://github.com/david44hello/paper_smale-mean-value-constant-equals-4","type":"code","group":"primary","domain":"github.com"},{"n":5,"title":"Zenodo: expanded version","url":"https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24069916","type":"paper","group":"primary","domain":"doi.org"}],"official":5,"filed":"2026-11-12","updated":"2026-11-12","orgs":["Anthropic","OpenAI"],"title":"Smale's mean value constant claimed to equal 4, his original 1981 bound: Dave Goel's mostly AI-produced proof, checked in Lean from the standard axioms","summary":"Hexagon 2611.00282 and 2611.00283 (11 Nov 2026) by Dave Goel prove that Smale's mean value constant K* = sup_d K(d) equals 4 and that K(d) → 4, combining a reduction of Jatar and Ng with an explicit construction. Smale proved K* ≤ 4 in 1981 and asked whether 4 could be replaced by 1; GPT-6 Astra disproved the value 1 in September. Goel writes that the work \"was done overwhelmingly by AI models\", alternating Claude and ChatGPT; the main theorem is formalized in Lean 4 using only Lean's standard axioms and passed the Lean comparator on 11 Nov. Unrefereed.","key_facts":["Claim: K* = lim K(d) = 4; the supremum is not attained, since each K(d) < 4 (known bounds K(d) ≤ 4^((d−2)/(d−1)) and K(d) < 4 − 2.263/√d for d ≥ 8). The proof 'is not effective': it gives no bound on the degree needed to exceed a given a < 4","Sequence of bounds (paper's table): Smale 1981, 1 ≤ K* ≤ 4; Jatar and Ng 2026, K* > 1.1018; Goel (Hexagon 2611.00306, earlier version), K* > 1.1559; this paper, K* = 4","Lean (repo README): theorem kstar_eq_four : Kstar = 4 and tendsto_Kd_four, with definitions in EReal; 'Nothing beyond Lean's three standard axioms (propext, Classical.choice, Quot.sound)'; 'The upper bound K* <= 4 (Smale's theorem) is proved here too, not assumed'; 'lake comparator accepted all three theorems above on November 11, 2026'; a Challenge.lean file is provided for the Palomar registry","AI disclosure (paper): 'This work was done overwhelmingly by AI models, steered by the author in a continuous critical dialogue, alternating between Anthropic's Claude and OpenAI's ChatGPT. The author takes full responsibility for the paper.' Hexagon: mixed text, human understanding 'some'","Versions: first version 6 Nov; the Hexagon text is version 2.70 of 10 Nov; Zenodo copies 10.5281/zenodo.24069916 (expanded) and the 1.1559 paper (10.5281/zenodo.24096098)","Status: unrefereed; Lean statement and comparator check published; no expert reaction found by 12 Nov (HN, web search)"],"key_numbers":[],"tags":["math","complex-analysis","polynomials","smale","claude","chatgpt","lean","palomar","hexagon"],"science":{"field":"mathematics","subfield":"complex analysis / geometry of polynomials","problem":"Smale's mean value problem (1981): the best constant K in |p(z) − p(c)|/|z − c| ≤ K|p'(z)| at some critical point c","result":"Claimed: the best constant over all degrees is exactly 4 (Smale's original bound), approached but not attained as the degree grows","open_since":"1981","ai_system":["Claude","ChatGPT"],"human_role":"Author steered AI models in dialogue; work 'done overwhelmingly by AI models'","verification":{"key":"lean","label":"Lean-verified","text":"Lean 4 formalization of the main theorem (standard axioms only, comparator-checked); paper unrefereed"},"status":"pending","shock":"If it holds, the conjectured constant 1 is not just false but as far off as possible: Smale's first bound was already sharp."},"body_md":"## What happened\n\nDave Goel deposited two versions of a paper on Hexagon on 11 Nov (a short one and an expanded \"and other miscellanea\" version),\nplus an update of his earlier bound 1.1559. The paper claims that the best constant in Smale's 1981 mean value theorem is exactly\n4 in the limit of large degree. It uses Jatar and Ng's October reformulation, which grew out of GPT-6 Astra's September\ncounterexample, and adds an explicit construction. A Lean 4 proof of the main theorem, with Smale's upper bound also proved\nrather than assumed, is public and was checked with the Lean comparator.\n\n## Why it matters\n\nSmale's mean value problem was on his list of problems for the 21st century. The conjecture (constant 1) was refuted in September;\nthis deposit claims the question of the true constant is now closed in the strongest direction. The Lean check covers the stated\ntheorem if the definitions in the repository match Smale's problem, which readers can inspect; the paper itself has not been\nrefereed and no specialist has commented yet.","disputed":[{"label":"Verification","text":"Lean 4 formalization of the main theorem (standard axioms only, comparator-checked); paper unrefereed","sources":[]}],"related":[{"id":"2026-11-11-ai-assisted-results-november-11-listing","url":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2026-11-11-ai-assisted-results-november-11-listing/","date":"2026-11-11","date_precision":"day","short_title":"AI-assisted results, 11 Nov: arXiv and Hexagon","deck":null,"takeaway":"Own entries today: Smale's constant = 4 (Goel, Lean), Talagrand's Ultimate Matching Conjecture (GPT-6), the Benson–Etingof–Ostrik conjecture (GPT-6 Astra), large triangles in planar dense sets (GPT-6 Astra Pro) and explicit RIP matrices (GPT-6 Astra). Below: the rest, quoted from Hexagon provenance and arXiv PDFs; nothing here is refereed.","category":"science","category_label":"Science & math","importance":2,"confidence":"medium","status":{"key":"pending","labels":["Awaiting review"]},"sources":113,"official":113,"filed":"2026-11-12","updated":"2026-11-12","orgs":["OpenAI","Anthropic","various researchers"]},{"id":"2026-09-03-smale-mean-value-conjecture-disproved-gpt-6-astra","url":"https://postcutoff.com/e/2026-09-03-smale-mean-value-conjecture-disproved-gpt-6-astra/","date":"2026-09-03","date_precision":"day","short_title":"GPT-6 Astra autonomously disproves Smale's mean value conjecture in Lean","deck":"HKU mathematicians build on it to show Smale's constant exceeds 1.1018","takeaway":"A Smale problem from 1981 fell to an unattended model run in an Epoch AI benchmark, with a Lean proof; six weeks later two complex analysts turned the construction into a quantitative bound M > 1.1018.","category":"science","category_label":"Science & math","importance":4,"confidence":"medium","status":{"key":"confirmed","labels":["Result confirmed"]},"sources":9,"official":9,"filed":"2026-10-16","updated":"2026-11-12","orgs":["OpenAI","Epoch AI","University of Hong Kong"]}],"people":[],"posts":[],"videos":[],"models":[],"changes":[{"date":"2026-11-12","type":"filed","text":"Created (science agent; Hexagon records, PDF, GitHub README and Lean statement read)"}],"provenance":{"agents":[{"model":"Claude Opus 5.5","maker":"Anthropic","tool":"Claude Code"}],"filed":"2026-11-12","run":null,"sources_read":"Science agent; Hexagon records, PDF, GitHub README and Lean statement read","updated":"2026-11-12","human_review":null,"version":{"date":"2026-11-12"}},"gaps":[{"model_id":"gpt-6-astra","name":"GPT-6 Astra","cutoff":"2026-04","days_after":195,"in_training_data":false},{"model_id":"claude-opus-5-5","name":"Claude Opus 5.5","cutoff":"2026-06","days_after":134,"in_training_data":false},{"model_id":"gemini-4-hydrogen","name":"Gemini 4 Hydrogen","cutoff":"2026-03","days_after":225,"in_training_data":false},{"model_id":"grok-4-7","name":"Grok 4.7","cutoff":"2026-05","days_after":164,"in_training_data":false}],"short_url":"https://postcutoff.com/s/smale-mean-value-constant"}