As of: 2026-10-17 07:29 CEST.
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Canonical page: https://postcutoff.com/p/2026-10-16-roon-nobel-discovery-expectations/

# roon (OpenAI): why would Anthropic staff's Nobel-discovery expectation not be >95%?

roon (@tszzl), X, 2026-10-16.
Source: https://x.com/tszzl/status/2111215889094001017

## Why it matters

OpenAI staffer's widely seen reaction (~61k views) to the survey item that 58% of Anthropic staff expect a Nobel-level discovery by Claude by 2027.

## Summary

Posted Oct 16 22:01 UTC by roon (@tszzl); 60,761 views, 2,120 likes, 40 reposts when read via api.fxtwitter.com on 2026-10-17. Quotes @MTSlive: "SITUATION DETECTED: 58% of Anthropic staff expect Claude to be able to make a Nobel prize level scientific discovery by 2027.".

## Archived text

> why would this not be >95%? alphafold made a nobel prize winning discovery in 2018. openai made several fields medal level discoveries just this year
> 
> > Quoting @MTSlive: SITUATION DETECTED: 58% of Anthropic staff expect Claude to be able to make a Nobel prize level scientific discovery by 2027.

Archived 2026-10-17 via fxtwitter (unofficial).
Counts: 61,969 views, 2,154 likes, 42 reposts, 97 replies (at fetch time)

## Cited in

- 2026-10-16: [Anthropic publishes two economics reports](https://postcutoff.com/e/2026-10-16-anthropic-employment-expectations-gap-reports/)