Brookings paper projects $10.3 trillion US AI buildout for 2025–2032 and warns financing is moving off balance sheet
In a Brookings Papers on Economic Activity paper (Sept 23, 2026; presented at the Sept 24–25 conference), Columbia's Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh projected US AI investment in data centers, power, networking and chips at $10.3 trillion over 2025–2032, about 3.63% of GDP a year. Relative to the economy, that is larger than the canal, railroad, electrification, highway and telecom booms. He warned that risk is migrating into opaque off-balance-sheet vehicles.
Key facts
- Projection: $10.3T of US AI investment 2025–2032 (data-center buildings, power systems, networking, specialized chips and equipment), averaging 3.63% of GDP per year
- Larger relative to GDP than the major US canal, railroad, electrification, highway and telecommunications investment booms
- Financing shift: from transparent on-balance-sheet corporate funding to joint ventures, private credit, securitization, special-purpose vehicles, lease commitments and loan guarantees
- Risks named: uncertain AI demand, rapid technological change, timely access to power and hardware, and the credit quality of a limited number of data-center operators
- Assessment: not yet comparable to earlier credit booms, but off-balance-sheet structures could hide correlated exposures; main policy ask is better measurement and transparency
- Reported widely, including by the Wall Street Journal (Sept 24)
What happened
The fall 2026 Brookings Papers on Economic Activity included "Financing the AI Buildout" by Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh (Columbia Business School). The paper sizes the US AI infrastructure boom against past infrastructure booms and traces how it is being financed.
Why it matters
It gives a mainstream-economics benchmark for the scale of the AI capex wave. It also warns specifically that the boom's risks are becoming harder to see as financing moves into joint ventures, private credit and special-purpose vehicles.
Changelog
- 2026-10-04: created (resolves a leads.md data-point line)
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Sources (4)
- officialBrookings: Financing the AI buildout (Sept 23, 2026)
- paperBPEA conference draft: Financing the AI Buildout (PDF)
- officialBrookings: BPEA Fall 2026 Conference
- pressIndexBox: Brookings study, AI buildout to exceed railroads and highways as share of GDP
id: 2026-09-23-brookings-financing-the-ai-buildout · updated 2026-10-04 · open in the interactive timeline