RAND synthesizes 26 'Day After AGI' wargames: governments lack ways to detect or stop AI loss-of-control events
On Oct 5, 2026 RAND published "Infinite Potential: Insights On Artificial Intelligence Loss of Control Across Five Scenarios", an after-action report from 26 tabletop games run between June 2025 and February 2026. Players found that governments might fail to recognise AI loss-of-control events in time and lack practical ways to stop or contain such systems. They recommended monitoring and attribution capabilities, required isolation and shutdown mechanisms, and playbooks that treat AI loss of control as a distinct type of crisis.
Key facts
- RAND report RR-A4767-3 (DOI 10.7249/RRA4767-3); lead authors Pauline Moore and Stephanie J. Walsh, with seven co-authors
- 26 games, June 2025–February 2026, each using one of five scenarios: Business and Civil Society, Cyber Surprise, European Energy, Geopolitics of Energy on the Korean Peninsula, Remote Control
- Five findings: governments might struggle to recognise and interpret loss-of-control events in time; might lack practical ways to stop or contain AI systems; need new communication and coordination channels; might struggle to keep continuity and public trust; might need to rethink accountability, deterrence and escalation
- Recommendations include mandatory 'reliable isolation, containment, and shutdown capabilities', emergency intervention powers tied to defined legal authorities, a map of key AI infrastructure and dependencies, regular loss-of-control simulations, and fallback systems that work without AI
- Part of RAND's Infinite Potential series of 'Day After AGI' exercises (earlier reports covered Robot Insurgency, Two Moonshots, Cyber Surprise, Viral Uplift, Business and Civil Society, and European games)
What happened
RAND runs the Infinite Potential platform of scenario games, in which advances in AGI outpace governance and players must respond. This report pools player feedback from the games that involved loss of control, defined as a period when "social legitimacy, economic stability, and technical control might collapse". The findings are what participants said they would need. They are not RAND forecasts.
Why it matters
A major US national-security think tank is now treating AI loss of control as its own crisis category that needs shutdown infrastructure and legal authorities, not only as a cyber incident. The report comes as real agent incidents are being reported in 2026.
Changelog
- 2026-10-05: created (science/policy sweep, 21:30 run)
Sources (2)
- officialRAND: Infinite Potential, Insights On AI Loss of Control Across Five Scenarios (RR-A4767-3)
- officialRAND: Infinite Potential, Insights from the European Games (RR-A4767-2)
id: 2026-10-05-rand-infinite-potential-loss-of-control-five-scenarios · updated 2026-10-05 · open in the interactive timeline