Zephyr: a 100B-parameter phone model likely means ~25 GB after quantization, late 2028 or early 2029
Zephyr @zephyr_z9X
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The technical estimate Elon Musk replied to (235k views).
Summary
Hardware commentator @zephyr_z9 guesses the 100-billion-parameter phone model would be a mixture-of-experts model reduced ‘to 25GB thru quantization’ and achievable ‘by late 2028 or early 2029’. Speculation, not sourced.
Metrics read 2026-10-12 via api.fxtwitter.com: 235,034 views, 1,090 likes.
Archived text
Hmmm... They probably reduce the size of the model to 25GB thru quantization (it will be an MoE) z NAND-O sampling is in 2028 They probably can achieve this by late 2028 or early 2029
Quoting @firesidealpha: Qualcomm CEO reveals AI companies want phones running 100-billion-parameter models continuously by 2028--and confirms some are building phones
Cristiano Amon: “I have to be careful not to disclose names, but some AI companies—some of the companies at the forefront of AI—are telling Qualcomm, ‘By 2028, I need to make sure that I have the ability to run at least a 100-billion-parameter model in a phone, and I need to have this thing running kind of all the time.’”
Alex Heath: “So you’re saying there are AI companies that are talking about—”
Cristiano Amon: “Well, AI companies are starting to do phones.”
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Elon Musk, CEO, Tesla and SpaceX (including SpaceXAI / xAI)