CoreWeave Crash, AI Trade Cracks, Anthropic IPO Red Flags, Bill Gates Doomer

Summary
In this episode of the All-In Podcast, co-hosts Jason Calacanis, Chamath Palihapitiya, and David Sacks are joined by guest co-host Ben Horowitz (co-founder of Andreessen Horowitz). The panel discusses the market rout in AI neoclouds (focusing on CoreWeave’s bond yields spiking to 15%), structural bottlenecks around data center power, financial disclosures and IPO prospects for Anthropic and OpenAI, and recent safety research papers and warnings from Anthropic and Bill Gates.

What is shown

• Stock chart tracking 5-day drops in neocloud equities CoreWeave ($CRWV), Iris Energy ($IREN), and Nebius ($NBIS), all down ~20% [02:38].
• Chamath Palihapitiya’s post and Elon Musk’s “Yikes” reply regarding CoreWeave bond yields reaching 15% [02:49, 03:16].
• Video clip of Jason Calacanis interviewing CoreWeave CEO Michael Intrator explaining CoreWeave’s SPV project-financing structure (“The Box”) [04:13].
• Slide decks and financial charts presented by Chamath detailing CoreWeave’s bond yields vs. CCC-rated junk debt, Treasury spreads [07:23, 07:56], contracted debt versus contracted revenue [08:31, 11:01], and debt interest schedules [10:15].
• Polymarket prediction market odds on CoreWeave filing for bankruptcy [18:37].
• Polymarket odds on Anthropic’s IPO before 2027 [45:56], alongside slides showing leaked Q3 financial data for Anthropic (reported $16.8B quarterly revenue, 900% NRR, 85% adjusted gross margin) [46:28, 46:35, 46:47].
• Screenshots of Anthropic’s blog post “AI models may be capable of self-replicating without access to a datacenter” detailing testing with Gemma 4 on Android TV boxes [64:06, 69:38].
• Screenshots of Anthropic’s blog post on defenses against distillation attacks [66:40].
• Screenshots of the research paper “The Continual Constitutional Convention: How language models revise the documents that govern them” [71:16, 73:32, 74:44, 80:01].
• Brian Armstrong’s post describing fine-tuning an open-weight Qwen model for Coinbase internal fraud detection [74:54].
• Web interface of the Throne gut-health toilet sensor [82:04, 82:28].

Claims & numbers

• CoreWeave’s bond yields touched 15.1% intraday, up from an initial issue yield of 9.625% on its 2032 notes (Chamath, citing market data) [02:49, 10:48].
• CoreWeave’s credit default swaps traded around 953 basis points, implying an estimated ~16% annual probability of default and ~55% default probability over a five-year horizon (Chamath) [06:40–07:01].
• CoreWeave has ~$35B in existing debt at an average interest rate of 8.4%, while new financing costs are estimated at 15.6% (Chamath) [10:15–10:28].
• CoreWeave has extreme customer concentration, with roughly 75% of revenue coming from three customers (Chamath) [11:19].
• Ben Horowitz states that in 1999, Loudcloud paid $1,500/megabit for bandwidth contracts that collapsed to $50/megabit by 2001, warning that neoclouds take on similar long-term asset liability mismatch risk [17:15–17:27].
• Horowitz reports Amazon CEO Andy Jassy told him Amazon is sold out of data center compute and power capacity through the end of 2028 [14:55–15:05].
• By 2050, the U.S. is projected to face an energy deficit of 1.4 terawatt-hours, equivalent to the power consumption of six Californias (Chamath) [38:40].
• CoreWeave pays back capital expenditures in 2.5 years on typical 5-year contracts, whereas xAI/SpaceX achieves payback in roughly 1 year due to spot market pricing ($50B/GW vs. $20B/GW contracted) (David Sacks) [40:35–40:53].
• Leaked figures from Anthropic’s Q3 investor presentation show $16.8B in Q3 revenue, 900% net revenue retention, 40%+ compute margin, 85% adjusted gross margin, and 11% adjusted operating margin (Jason Calacanis) [46:28–46:52].
• Anthropic and OpenAI together account for roughly 60% of all projected worldwide compute capacity deployed over the next year (David Sacks, citing SemiAnalysis) [59:53].
• Anthropic evaluated running a 9B model across 15 Android TV boxes costing ~$55 each, generating tokens at 0.39 tokens per second (Jason Calacanis, reading Anthropic’s post) [51:04].

Notable quotes

• “They’re Rube Goldberg financial machines. They’re exceptionally complex.” — Ben Horowitz [13:54]
• “I think power will be the moat... you can build the most fantastical things in the world and you’re going to see people on the dry docks basically trying to hitchhike to get power.” — Chamath Palihapitiya [38:21]
• “As long as the payback period remains as short as it is today, to me that would be the one metric I would really keep an eye on.” — David Sacks [42:24]

Assessment
This video is a full episode of a business and technology commentary podcast featuring discussion and presentation of industry reports, leaked financials, prediction markets, and published technical papers. Visuals consist of live webcam feeds, onscreen slides, social media posts, and news screenshots; financial and technical figures are asserted by the commentators based on secondary sources and third-party reports.

Described by gemini-3.8-flash on 2026-10-17 from the video’s audio and frames.