OpenAI’s Revenue Report Deepens AI Bubble Fears, Firmus Shelves IPO

Summary
This broadcast of Bloomberg Television’s The Asia Trade (hosted by Shery Ahn in Tokyo and Haidi Stroud-Watts in Sydney) examines the market fallout from reports indicating OpenAI’s annualized revenue run rate is nearing $50 billion rather than earlier $70 billion estimates. The program features analysis on tech sell-offs and AI bubble fears, coverage of Nvidia-backed data center operator Firmus shelving its planned Australian IPO, and interviews regarding AI infrastructure supply chains, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and geopolitics.

What is shown

• [00:15] Studio anchors Shery Ahn and Haidi Stroud-Watts introduce the market session, tracking declines in tech stocks and Asian equities following US chipmaker sell-offs.
• [02:50] Panel segment with Mandeep Singh (Head of Technology Research, Bloomberg Intelligence) and Mark Cranfield (Markets Live Strategist) discussing open-weight model competition, token consumption vs. revenue, and AI capex dynamics.
• [04:00] Infographics highlighting adoption rates comparing OpenAI and Anthropic, alongside discussions on frontier models and accounting differences.
• [05:07] Document display detailing Anthropic research on measuring the pace of frontier AI development and AI R&D automation metrics.
• [06:08] On-screen graphics featuring OpenAI CEO Sam Altman during discussions about OpenAI’s annualized run rate and private funding rounds.
• [10:06] Clip of Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller delivering remarks at the Istanbul Economic Forum regarding monetary policy and interest rate paths.
• [13:38] Segment with Bloomberg’s Paul Allen discussing Australian data center operator Firmus pulling its planned initial public offering.
• [16:51] Segment with Ed Ludlow reporting on the Trump administration’s suspension of PERM visa processing for companies including Microsoft.
• [17:40] Press conference footage of US Vice President JD Vance announcing actions regarding the PERM visa program.
• [19:20] Interview clip of Las Vegas Sands CEO Patrick Dumont discussing non-gaming investments and prediction markets.
• [26:55] Live studio interview with Michael Hurlston, CEO of Lumentum, discussing optical transceiver demand, laser chips, and manufacturing expansion in North Carolina and Japan.
• [37:20] Coverage with Jon Herskovitz regarding President Trump’s statements ruling out US military strikes on Iran ahead of the November midterm elections.
• [40:03] Drone footage of Oracle’s “Project Jupiter” data center construction site in New Mexico.
• [42:25] Coverage of SpaceX’s low-band spectrum deal for Starlink Direct-to-Cell service.
• [42:50] Reporting on Gearoid Reidy’s column regarding rising Japanese government bond (JGB) yields and domestic retail investment.
• [51:00] Milken Institute Asia Summit coverage featuring an interview with Seema Shah (Principal Global Investors Chief Global Strategist) on AI capex cycles and European debt.
• [74:17] Interview with Deborah Elms (Hinrich Foundation) analyzing EU-China trade negotiations over hybrid and EV vehicle exports.
• [80:55] Analysis by Bloomberg Opinion columnist David Fickling regarding proposed European tariffs on Chinese automotive imports.
• [83:35] The Big Take segment with Dan Murtaugh exploring China’s renewable energy surplus and electrical grid buildouts designed to power AI data centers.
• [88:50] Reporting with Swati Pandey evaluating the impact of US visa suspensions on Indian IT outsourcing firms.

Claims & numbers

• Sources reporting to Bloomberg stated OpenAI’s annualized revenue run rate is tracking near $50 billion, approximately $20 billion below previous media estimates of roughly $70 billion (reported at [00:24], [01:20], [02:40]).
• Aggregate capex from hyperscalers and neoclouds is projected to exceed $1.2 trillion entering 2027 (stated by Mandeep Singh at [03:59]).
• Firmus sought an IPO valuation of A$30 billion to raise A$5.5 billion at A$11 per share before shelving the listing to pursue private funding; the company operates two data centers and logged A$50 million in revenue in the previous fiscal year (reported by Paul Allen at [13:54]).
• Bain & Co. estimates the broader AI industry needs to generate $6 trillion per year to justify current capital spending (cited at [15:40], [52:27]).
• Lumentum CEO Michael Hurlston stated the company is undershipping demand on key laser and optical products by roughly 70% for the upcoming year and 30% into 2028, with capacity nearly sold out through 2029 (stated at [27:18]).
• Hurlston stated expanding cleanroom and fabrication capacity for optical components requires an approximate three-year lead time from equipment fit-out to customer qualification (stated at [35:17]).
• China added more than 540 GW of power capacity in 2025, including over 300 GW of solar and 100 GW of wind, with roughly 9% of green power curtailed/wasted in H1 due to grid transmission bottlenecks (reported by Dan Murtaugh at [42:24]).
• SoftBank shares dropped more than 6% to 7% in Tokyo trading following reports on OpenAI’s revenue run rate, given its estimated $60 billion commitment to OpenAI (reported at [48:13], [57:17], [58:39]).

Notable quotes

• [03:22] Mandeep Singh: “Companies are looking to optimize their token costs and they are evaluating a lot of the open-weight models for use cases where you don’t need frontier tokens from OpenAI and Anthropic.”
• [10:09] Christopher Waller: “If the economic data continue to come in as expected, I anticipate additional hikes to support a timelier return of inflation to our 2% goal.”
• [27:21] Michael Hurlston: “We are undershipping demand on some of our products by 30% now into ‘28, we’re almost sold out for 2029, and then for other products we’re actually undershipping demand by about 70% next year.”

Assessment
This is a professional television business news broadcast and financial analysis program. Visual graphics reflect real-time financial market movements, data charts from referenced research reports, and verified corporate announcements, accompanied by live, unedited interviews with subject-matter experts and corporate executives.

Described by gemini-3.8-flash on 2026-10-10 from the video’s audio and frames.