Andrew Curran: “Pacing is out the window” after Muse Wonder

Pacing is out the window. For it to work, every American lab needed to be on board, Mark Zuckerberg has repeatedly made it clear that he is not interested. One defection among US labs breaks it all, as the others will be forced to accelerate or get passed. Mark has a staggering amount of compute and has been all in on compute capex for years; even in the face of some investor opposition he never stopped building his infra once. He said on the the earnings call a couple of years ago that he’d rather overspend now, and potentially even be wrong, than not have the compute when he needed it for the next 10x. He’s finally hitting his stride, and he is not going to slow down.

For Team Pacing to solve a defection like this, they would have needed a supportive, pro-Pacing administration that was passing capability regulations and was willing to use the power of the federal government to enforce them and bring noncompliant labs into line. They don’t have any of this. In fact, it’s the opposite! Mark has Trump’s ear, and President Trump, Mark Zuckerberg, and Jensen are completely aligned on policy; It’s full speed ahead, and if you want to pace yourself, go ahead, but don’t tell anyone else what to do. This breaks Pacing.

None of this changes until 2029 at the earliest, and to me, 2029 is past the ASI window. The last election, as it turns out, really was the most important one in history.

Quoting @AndrewCurran_: Muse Wonder aka Watermelon, has arrived.