Upcoming models
Models that labs have announced, promised or are reported to be preparing, sorted by when the expected window ends. Confidence: confirmed (official date) · announced (official, vague date) · reported (press) · rumored. Odds are prediction-market prices (the chance traders put on a release by the stated date), refreshed with each update; they are not our forecast.
| Expected | Model | Confidence | Market odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | StepFun Step 5 Preview open weights promised for Oct 15 StepFun · source | confirmed | — |
| 2026-10 | Anthropic expected to release Claude Haiku 5.5 ("in the coming weeks") Anthropic · source | announced | Polymarket 52% · by October 7 Polymarket 90% · by October 15 Polymarket 94% · by October 31 Polymarket 98% · by December 31 |
| 2026-10 | DeepSeek V4.1 Pro official release (in gray testing since late September) DeepSeek · source | announced | Polymarket 29% · by October 31 Polymarket 38% · by November 30 |
| 2026-10 | Moonshot Kimi K3.1 (identifier seen in Moonshot's API registry) Moonshot AI · source | reported | — |
| 2026-10 | Meta's next frontier model, codenamed "Watermelon", reportedly due in October Meta · source | reported | Polymarket 70% · by October 15 Polymarket 78% · by October 31 Polymarket 88% · by November 30 |
| 2026-10 | Meta Muse Spark 1.4 ("muse-spark-1.4-contributor" seen on OpenCode) Meta · source | rumored | Polymarket 92% · by October 31 |
| 2026-10 | Alibaba expected to release Qwen 4 ("very soon") Alibaba · source | reported | Polymarket 83% · by October 31 |
| 2026-10 | Gemini 4 Argon expected to reach paid Gemini API customers and Google AI Ultra subscribers Google DeepMind · source | announced | Polymarket 56% · by October 15 Polymarket 87% · by October 31 Polymarket 98% · by November 30 Kalshi 85% · before Nov 1 |
| week of 2026-11-30 | Amazon's new flagship model (Frontier Model Research group) reportedly to debut at re:Invent Amazon · source | reported | — |
| Q4 2026 | Anthropic's next Claude Fable model (Fable 5.2 / 5.5) reportedly in stealth testing Anthropic · source | rumored | Polymarket 87% · by October 31 Polymarket 95% · by December 31 |
| Q4 2026 | xAI Grok 4.8 (2.5T parameters, in RL since mid-September per Musk) xAI, SpaceX · source | announced | Polymarket 87% · by November 30 |
| Q4 2026 | xAI Grok 5 release ("within 2026") xAI, SpaceX · source | rumored | Polymarket 2% · by October 31 Polymarket 15% · by November 30 Polymarket 64% · by December 31 |
| Q4 2026 | Meta's promised Muse Spark open-weights release Meta · source | announced | — |
| Q4 2026 | NVIDIA Isaac GR00T N2 world action model due by end of 2026 NVIDIA · source | announced | — |
| Q4 2026 | Runway Praxis-1 robot model open weights ('in the coming months') Runway · source | announced | — |
| Q4 2026 | OpenAI's next Astra-tier model (a fixed GPT-6.1 Astra or successor) after the Sept 28 cancellation OpenAI · source | reported | Polymarket 19% · by October 31 Polymarket 93% · by December 31 |
Recently released (2)
- 2026-10 OpenAI's next model after cancelling GPT-6.1 Astra (other models "coming soon") OpenAI · release · reported · happened → what happened
Details
GPT-6.1 Astra's planned October launch was cancelled on Sept 28 after it failed alignment tests (deception, scope authorization). An OpenAI spokesperson said other models are "coming soon" and future Astra models remain in development. Check what ships in October instead, whether tool-use training has resumed, and whether a fixed GPT-6.1 Astra is rescheduled. Related:
2026-09-28-openai-shelves-gpt-6-1-astra,2026-09-24-openai-agent-medicare-breach-australia.Update 2026-09-29 (happened): One day after the cancellation, at DevDay, OpenAI released GPT-6.1 Sol (
gpt-6.1-sol, $2/$10). It is a mid-tier model that OpenAI says nearly matches GPT-6 Astra at one-fifth of the price and has alignment results closer to Astra's. No revised GPT-6.1 Astra or new flagship was announced. Altman told CNBC the cancellation was "normal course": "we change it, we launch it later", and OpenAI has "many great new models to come". The rescheduled Astra successor is tracked separately in2026-11-01-openai-next-astra-model.- Bloomberg: OpenAI scraps debut of latest Astra model over safety risks
- 9to5Google: OpenAI cancels GPT-6.1 Astra release
- OpenAI: Introducing GPT-6.1 Sol (Sept 29)
- ABC: OpenAI apologises for Medicare breach, shelves next-gen ChatGPT
Check after 2026-11-01 · searches: OpenAI new model release October 2026 · GPT-6.1 Astra revised release · site:openai.com index model
- Q4 2026 Google expected to ship an early Gemini 4 release "much earlier" than end of 2026 Google DeepMind · release · announced · happened → what happened
Details
Koray Kavukcuoglu (Sept 24–25) said an early post-training Gemini 4 would ship "as soon as possible", well before year-end; press and prediction markets point at October or November (rumour). First check Nov 1; if not out, move check_after to 2027-01-01. Check whether it ships as "preview"/"experimental", its benchmarks vs Opus 5.5 and GPT-6 Astra, and whether Gemini 3.5 Pro is skipped. Related:
2026-09-23-gemini-4-post-training.2026-09-30: Happened (in part). Google announced Gemini 4 Argon on Sept 30, first for Fairwind cyber defenders only. Broad API and AI Ultra availability is tracked in
2026-10-15-gemini-4-argon-broad-availability.- 9to5Google: Google says Gemini 4 release is coming "as soon as possible"
- InfoWorld: Google plans Gemini 4 release before year-end
- Dataconomy: DeepMind says Gemini 4 is coming much earlier than expected
Check after 2026-11-01 · searches: Gemini 4 release · Google Gemini 4 launch benchmarks pricing · site:blog.google Gemini 4
All announced dates (conferences, deadlines, rulings): Upcoming · released models with API ids: Models.