Promises, graded

Every plan on our calendar is graded once its date passes: did it happen, slip or get cancelled? Each row keeps the promise’s source and links the entry that records the outcome.

15 happened, 1 delayed, 1 cancelled.

We grade dated plans only. Vague “coming weeks” promises are graded when the window closes.

The ledger

17 graded promises, newest plan first.

DelayedReleasePlanned for 30 October

Gossip Goblin’s AI-made feature ‘Gods Don’t Give Gifts’ opens in US and UK theaters (delayed from Oct 30 to Dec 4)
Announced 22 July 2026: Gossip Goblin on X: ‘Gods Don’t Give Gifts - in theaters Oct 30th.’ (~54k views) x.com

Outcome
Not yet: it moved to a new date

Slip
Moved to 4 December35 days later than planned
HappenedCourtPlanned for the week of 9 October

Third Circuit’s Thomson Reuters v. Ross fair-use opinion expected to be unsealed
Reported in September 2026: LawSites: opinion sealed, redactions due within 10 days lawnext.com

Outcome
Recorded in Third Circuit upholds Thomson Reuters’ win over Ross Intelligence

Slip
No outcome date on file
HappenedPolicyPlanned for 6 October

Australia’s Joint Select Committee on AI: Sydney hearings with OpenAI (Jason Kwon, Medicare breach) and Anthropic executives
Reported 24 September 2026: ABC: OpenAI hacked Medicare portal, PM says abc.net.au

Outcome
OpenAI’s Jason Kwon apologizes to Australia’s AI committee for the Medicare breach, 6 October

Slip
Happened on the planned day, 6 October
HappenedOtherPlanned for 6 October

2026 Nobel Prizes in Physics (Oct 6) and Chemistry (Oct 7)
Announced: NobelPrize.org: the 2026 Nobel Prize announcements

Outcome
No timeline entry

Slip
No outcome date on file
HappenedPolicyPlanned for 5 October

NYC Council Committee of the Whole hearing on AI risks: sworn testimony from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, Meta (SpaceXAI subpoenaed) and Jacob Coxon
Announced 25 September 2026: NYC Council press release

Outcome
Anthropic, OpenAI, Google and Meta testify under oath at NYC Council AI hearing, 5 October

Slip
Happened on the planned day, 5 October
HappenedDeadlinePlanned for 5 October

GPT-Rosalind billing starts ($5/$25 per 1M tokens)
Reported: TokenCost: GPT-Rosalind pricing, billing starts October 5

Outcome
Recorded in OpenAI launches GPT-Rosalind, a trusted-access reasoning model for life-sciences research

Slip
No outcome date on file
HappenedOtherPlanned for 5 October

Jacob Coxon interviewed by Jon Stewart on The Daily Show
Announced: LateNighter: Jon Stewart to interview Anthropic whistleblower on The Daily Show

Outcome
Recorded in Anthropic researcher Jacob Coxon resigns, warning labs are “gambling with our lives”

Slip
No outcome date on file
HappenedLaunchPlanned for 4 October

First Googlebook laptops (Gemini-centric Chromebook successor, from $899) ship in the US
Announced: Google: Googlebook, the laptop your Android phone has been waiting for (pre-orders, Sept 21)

Outcome
First Googlebook laptops go on sale in the US, 4 October

Slip
Happened on the planned day, 4 October
HappenedPolicyPlanned for the week of 3 October

Trump expected to name a federal AI (‘SI’) czar
Announced 29 September 2026: CNBC: Trump says he and tech leaders signed AI agreement that is ‘morally binding’

Outcome
Trump forms the ‘Super Intelligence Force’ (SIF), chaired by DNI Jay Clayton as AI czar, with 120 days to report on AI risks and opportunities, 3 October

Slip
Happened 3 October, within the planned week
HappenedReleasePlanned for the week of 2 October

OpenAI Decisions API broad release (Luna-based fast decision model) and pricing
Announced 29 September 2026: OpenAI: DevDay 2026 Recap (Decisions API)

Outcome
OpenAI opens the Decisions API to all developers in public beta, 6 October

Slip
Happened 6 October, within the planned week
HappenedLaunchPlanned for 1 October

Google Project Suncatcher prototype (4 Trillium TPUs, built with Planet) launches on SpaceX Transporter-18
Announced 24 September 2026: Google: Project Suncatcher facts

Outcome
Google’s first Project Suncatcher satellite launches on SpaceX Transporter-18, 1 October

Slip
Happened on the planned day, 1 October
HappenedReleasePlanned for October 2026

OpenAI’s next model after cancelling GPT-6.1 Astra (other models “coming soon”)
Reported 28 September 2026: Bloomberg: OpenAI scraps debut of latest Astra model over safety risks

Outcome
OpenAI releases GPT-6.1 Sol, 29 September

Slip
Planned for October 2026; happened 29 September2 days before that month
HappenedReleasePlanned for Q4 2026

Google expected to ship an early Gemini 4 release “much earlier” than end of 2026
Announced 24 September 2026: 9to5Google: Google says Gemini 4 release is coming “as soon as possible”

Outcome
Google announces Gemini 4 Argon, its new frontier model, first released only to cyber defenders via the Fairwind Program, 30 September

Slip
Planned for Q4 2026; happened 30 September1 day before that quarter
CancelledReleasePlanned for Q4 2026

Gemini 3.5 Pro (announced at I/O for June 2026) still unreleased
Announced 19 May 2026: Google blog: Gemini 3.5, frontier intelligence with action

Outcome
See Google announces Gemini 4 Argon, its new frontier model, first released only to cyber defenders via the Fairwind Program

Slip
Planned for Q4 2026; cancelled
HappenedPolicyPlanned for 1 October

Connecticut AI law (SB 5) first provisions take effect
Announced: FPF: SB 5 in Five, what to know about Connecticut’s new AI law fpf.org

Outcome
Connecticut’s AI law (SB 5, the CART Act) starts taking effect, 1 October

Slip
Happened on the planned day, 1 October
HappenedDeadlinePlanned for 30 September

California governor’s deadline to sign or veto the 2026 AI bills
Announced 6 September 2026: Sigma Law Group: thirty AI bills on the governor’s desk

Outcome
Newsom’s final 2026 AI bill decisions, 30 September

Slip
Happened on the planned day, 30 September
HappenedCompetitionPlanned for 30 September

ARC Prize 2026: ARC-AGI-3 Milestone #2 deadline
Announced: ARC Prize 2026 competition page

Outcome
Open-source ARC-AGI-3 agents top out at 27.9% at ARC Prize 2026 Milestone #2, 1 October

Slip
Planned for 30 September; happened 1 October1 day later

Gossip Goblin’s AI-made feature ‘Gods Don’t Give Gifts’ opens in US and UK theaters (delayed from Oct 30 to Dec 4)

Third Circuit’s Thomson Reuters v. Ross fair-use opinion expected to be unsealed

Australia’s Joint Select Committee on AI: Sydney hearings with OpenAI (Jason Kwon, Medicare breach) and Anthropic executives

2026 Nobel Prizes in Physics (Oct 6) and Chemistry (Oct 7)

NYC Council Committee of the Whole hearing on AI risks: sworn testimony from Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, Meta (SpaceXAI subpoenaed) and Jacob Coxon

GPT-Rosalind billing starts ($5/$25 per 1M tokens)

Jacob Coxon interviewed by Jon Stewart on The Daily Show

First Googlebook laptops (Gemini-centric Chromebook successor, from $899) ship in the US

Trump expected to name a federal AI (‘SI’) czar

OpenAI Decisions API broad release (Luna-based fast decision model) and pricing

Google Project Suncatcher prototype (4 Trillium TPUs, built with Planet) launches on SpaceX Transporter-18

OpenAI’s next model after cancelling GPT-6.1 Astra (other models “coming soon”)

Google expected to ship an early Gemini 4 release “much earlier” than end of 2026

Gemini 3.5 Pro (announced at I/O for June 2026) still unreleased

Connecticut AI law (SB 5) first provisions take effect

California governor’s deadline to sign or veto the 2026 AI bills

ARC Prize 2026: ARC-AGI-3 Milestone #2 deadline